EN.malanginspirasi.com – Global gold prices have surged sharply to a new record and fresh all-time high of approximately US$5,365 per troy ounce, marking an increase of more than 85% compared to the same period last year. The dramatic rally is driven by the rapid escalation of military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran that began in late February.
This sharp rise reflects growing global investor concern over geopolitical instability, with gold once again proving its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset during times of crisis. In the 24/7 tokenized gold markets on crypto platforms, prices even climbed as high as US$5,494 per ounce, highlighting how digital markets react faster to breaking war news.
The jump was no surprise to market watchers. In the 24 hours immediately before the conflict peaked, gold and silver together added more than US$1 trillion in combined market value, with gold rising between 1.8% and 3.1% in a single day.
“This conflict is the perfect catalyst for gold as a safe-haven,” noted an analyst from FXEmpire, pointing to similar rapid 10-15% gains seen during the 2019-2020 tensions following the Soleimani strike.
Adding fuel to the fire, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices up 9-13%. Goldman Sachs warned they could reach US$150 per barrel if disruptions continue.
Higher energy costs are expected to stoke global inflation, further supporting gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
Gold as the Ultimate Safe Haven
Investors worldwide are pouring into gold as uncertainty mounts. While risk assets such as technology stocks and Bitcoin tumbled (Bitcoin fell to US$64,000), gold continued its climb. Should the conflict widen, demand for the yellow metal is likely to intensify even more.
Rising oil prices play a key supporting role. Historically, every 1% increase in oil tends to lift gold by 0.2-0.35% as inflation expectations rise.
Meanwhile, capital is rotating out of growth stocks into defensive sectors such as defense contractors (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon) and government bonds. On the technical charts, a clear “breakout triangle” pattern and “golden cross” signal strong upward momentum.
Gold Price in Indonesia (as of March 2, 2026)
The global surge is clearly felt in the Indonesian market.
- Antam physical gold (1 gram): Rp 3,085,000 (selling price, latest Logam Mulia/Pegadaian update)
- World spot equivalent: approximately Rp 2,893,000 per gram (based on US$5,365/oz at USD/IDR rate of ~16,770)
- Tokenized/crypto gold: equivalent to ~Rp 2,970,000+ per gram at the $5,494 peak
Indonesian retail investors buying Antam or UBS bars are seeing strong gains, with local premiums remaining stable at 6-8% over international spot.
Gold Price Outlook
Analysts have laid out clear forecasts tied to how the conflict develops:
- Base case (conflict continues but does not widen): US$5,300 – US$5,600 per ounce (60% probability)
- Severe escalation (prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz): US$5,500 – US$6,000, with tail risk up to US$8,000 – US$8,500 (35% probability)
- Rapid de-escalation: drop back to US$5,000 – US$5,143 (only 5% probability)
When markets open on Monday, analysts expect another volatile session with an upside bias. Immediate resistance sits at US$5,400 – US$5,600, while support lies near US$5,000.
If the conflict persists into the medium term, gold is widely expected to test or break its January record of US$5,600 and potentially move much higher.
