en.malanginspirasi.com – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast reveal that parts of Indonesia will begin entering the transition period from the rainy season to the dry season in the coming week (May 8-14, 2026).
This condition is due to the strengthening of the Australian monsoon, which brings dry air masses from the southeast towards Indonesia.
BMKG forecaster Yuni Maharani explained that the strengthening of the Australian monsoon has led to the dominance of easterly winds with relatively lower water vapor content.
As a result, the potential for rain in several regions of Indonesia has begun to decrease.
However, the BMKG warns that several atmospheric phenomena are still active and could trigger the formation of rain clouds in various regions.
“The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, and equatorial Rossby waves will continue to influence Indonesia’s atmospheric dynamics over the next week,” said Yuni on her press release statement to Info Publik.
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) noted that the MJO phenomenon is expected to cross most of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
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Meanwhile, Kelvin waves are predicted to be active in Sumatra, the Riau Islands, the Bangka Belitung Islands, Lampung, Kalimantan, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, and Papua. Equatorial Rossby waves are predicted to be active in East Nusa Tenggara, southern Sulawesi, Maluku, and the west coast of Papua.
The BMKG predicts that weather conditions for the period May 8–10, 2026, may be light to heavy rain.
The potential for heavy rain with lightning and strong winds, with an early warning level of alert, is predicted for North Sumatra, West Java, Central Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Maluku, and Central Papua. “Furthermore, strong winds are predicted to occur in East Nusa Tenggara and Maluku,” he added.
Meanwhile, for the period May 11–14, 2026, light to moderate rain is expected in most parts of Indonesia.
However, BMKG continues to warn of the potential for heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds in Central Papua and the Papua Mountains.
Previously, during the period May 4–6, 2026, the BMKG also recorded maximum temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, reaching 37.1 degrees Celsius in several regions, including East Kalimantan, West Papua, East Java, Central Sulawesi, Central Kalimantan, and North Sumatra. These hot temperatures were triggered by the strengthening of the Australian monsoon, which reduced cloud cover from morning to afternoon, allowing maximum solar radiation to reach the earth’s surface.
Although several regions are entering the dry season, heavy to extreme rainfall may take place in some areas.
The record from BMKG is rainfall may reach 159 mm per day in West Java, 131.8 mm per day in West Kalimantan, 129 mm per day in Banten, 120 mm per day in Central Java, and 129.8 mm per day in Southeast Sulawesi.
Furthermore, heavy rainfall also occurred in Jakarta, with 94.8 mm per day, Maluku 78 mm per day, East Nusa Tenggara 74.9 mm per day, West Sumatra 67 mm per day, Riau 62 mm per day, and Jambi 55.8 mm per day.
