en.malanginspirasi.com – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) updated its 2026 climate forecast, stating that the El Niño phenomenon is expected to become active soon and has the potential to persist until early 2027.
This prediction of the condition will cause this year’s dry season to be drier than normal in most parts of Indonesia.
BMKG Deputy for Climatology, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, explained that monitoring results through the end of May 2026 showed that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean had reached positive 1.0 degrees Celsius.
While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index was recorded at minus 0.56.
“The sea surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean has exceeded the neutral limit for five decades. BMKG predicts the El Niño phenomenon will become active soon and persist until early 2027,” Ardhasena said at a press conference in Jakarta on Wednesday, June 10th.
Based on the latest climate modeling results, the chance of El Niño developing into a moderate category is 98 percent, while the chance of increasing to a strong category is 62 percent.
Meanwhile, the BMKG is also monitoring the potential for a positive IOD phenomenon in the Indian Ocean between July and November 2026.
The combination of these two phenomena has the potential to exacerbate dry conditions in several regions of Indonesia.
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Ardhasena emphasized that the impact of El Niño is global and influences rainfall patterns in various parts of the world with varying characteristics.
“The El Niño phenomenon causes climate deviations in various regions of the world, not only in Indonesia. However, in Indonesia, El Niño generally results in decreased rainfall, resulting in drier conditions, especially from June to January,” he said.
According to the BMKG, increased rainfall due to El Niño actually occurs in the central Pacific until April of the following year, as well as on the coast of Latin America from January to May.
Conversely, decreased rainfall is also expected in parts of Brazil, India, and southern Africa.
As El Niño develops, the BMKG predicts that more and more regions of Indonesia will enter the dry season in the coming months. In June 2026, 198 seasonal zones (31.6 percent of Indonesia’s land area) are predicted to begin experiencing the dry season. These areas include most of Sumatra, West Kalimantan, most of Banten, southern Jakarta, Central Java, parts of East Java, most of Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, West Papua, and eastern Papua.
Meanwhile, in July 2026, 66 seasonal zones, or 7.26 percent of Indonesia’s territory, are predicted to enter the dry season, including western Jambi, East Kalimantan, eastern South Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, North Maluku, and parts of Maluku.
Dry Season Tends to Start Earlier
BMKG also noted that the start of the 2026 dry season tends to arrive earlier than the climatological average for the 1991–2020 period.
A total of 308 seasonal zones, or 39.7 percent of Indonesia’s land area, are predicted to experience an earlier than usual start to the dry season.
165 seasonal zones (17.03 percent) are predicted to experience normal weather, while 113 seasonal zones (9.52 percent) are predicted to experience a delayed onset of the dry season.
Regions predicted to experience earlier dry seasons include Aceh, parts of North Sumatra, Riau, the Riau Islands, most of Jambi, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, northern Lampung, most of Banten, Jakarta, parts of West Java, Central Java, the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, parts of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and several areas in Papua.
Regarding rainfall characteristics, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) confirmed that most regions of Indonesia are predicted to experience a below-normal dry season, or drier than average.
A total of 482 seasonal zones, or 56.18 percent of Indonesia’s land area, are predicted to experience these conditions. Meanwhile, 210 seasonal zones (43.14 percent) are predicted to experience normal rainfall characteristics.
Only seven monsoon zones, or 0.68 percent of Indonesia’s territory, are predicted to experience above-normal rainfall due to local topographical factors.
Areas predicted to be slightly wetter than normal include parts of Bengkulu, northern and southern Gorontalo, and a small portion of East Nusa Tenggara.
Conversely, areas predicted to experience drier dry conditions include parts of Sumatra, all of Java, most of Kalimantan, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, parts of East Nusa Tenggara, most of Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, and parts of Papua.
